Events that moved the market Q1 2017
The first quarter of 2017 had its fair share of market-moving news.
In South Africa, National Treasury showed its commitment to reducing the country’s debt levels and introduced a new 45% income tax bracket, as well as higher dividends tax and CGT inclusion rate. Also in Q1, inflation eased, the current account deficit narrowed and the SARB signalled that it’s likely reached the end of its interest rate hiking cycle, all boding well for the local economy. That was until Finance Minister Gordhan and others were dismissed abruptly, leading to a credit downgrade for SA.
Internationally, there are signals of a recovery in Europe and the wave of optimism interspersed with moments of reality around the extent of President Trump’s powers are also driving global stock markets.
What else happened during the quarter?
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3 Jan 2017
Source: IHS Markit
European output on the way up
The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI figure for December comes in at 54.9 points, the strongest indicator of economic expansion since April 2011. European markets respond with a strong start to the year.
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18 Jan 2017
Source: Statistics SA
SA food prices push up inflation
SA CPI climbs to 6.8.
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30 Jan 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
German inflation accelerates
German consumer prices rise 1.9, and are now at the highest rate since July 2013. Rising energy costs were the biggest driver.
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31 Jan 2017
Source: MarketWatch
Dow drops on Trump ban
President Trump’s signing of an immigration restriction on seven Muslim-majority countries causes global equity markets to retreat, but boosts traditional ‘safe havens’, such as gold and the Japanese yen.
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1 Feb 2017
Source: Moneyweb
African Bank rises from the ashes
The former ordinary and preference shares of holding company Abil start trading again under the new name of African Phoenix.
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7 Feb 2017
Source: fin24
Cell C downgraded to D
S&P downgrades Cell C to D, the lowest junk status rating for a corporate company after it missed interest payments on its €400m senior secured bonds due in 2018.
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14 Feb 2017
Source: Statistics SA
SA unemployment slightly down
The official unemployment rate drops to 26.5 higher than a year ago.
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14 Feb 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
German GDP less than forecast
German GDP grows by 0.4). With total growth for 2016 at 1.9%, Germany drives Europe’s recovery.
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15 Feb 2017
Source: AFP
US stocks keep on climbing
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index reach new highs for the fifth consecutive day after Trump promises details around his proposed tax cuts and Yellen signals higher rates are on the way.
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15 Feb 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
UK unemployment at 10-yr low
The number of people with jobs in the UK has reached an all-time high, while the 4.8% unemployment rate is at decade-low levels.
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15 Feb 2017
Source: fin24
Banks in trouble after forex collusion
The Competition Commission is investigating 17 banks for collusion on currency pairs involving the South African rand since 2015.
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1 Mar 2017
Source: Reuters
Dow slashes 21 000
The Dow Jones breaks through 21 000 for the first time after President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress.
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2 Mar 2017
Source: EU statistics agency
Prices rising in Europe
Consumer prices rise 2% in February from a year earlier.
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7 Mar 2017
Source: Statistics SA
SA economy shrinks
SA GDP contracts by 0.3% in Q4 2016.
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8 Mar 2017
Source: Ernst & Young
Bank’s earnings warning
Total headline earnings by Barclays Africa, Capitec, FirstRand, Investec, Nedbank and Standard Bank grew by 6.6 in 2015. This is a seven-year low.
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8 Mar 2017
Source: AFP
Oil price drops suddenly
The West Texas Intermediate drops more than 5% to $50.28 a barrel, its lowest price since December, after a hefty increase of eight million barrels in petroleum stocks in the previous week and uncertainty around where this supply is coming from.
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9 Mar 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
China inflation rising
The Chinese Producer Price Index rises 7.8% from a year earlier. Factory prices only came out of four and a half years of deflation in September.
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15 Mar 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
UK unemployment at four-decade low
UK unemployment unexpectedly declines to 4.7.
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15 Mar 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
US inflation is back
Compared with February 2016, US CPI is up 2.7%, the most in four years.
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15 Mar 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
US hikes interest rates
The Fed hikes the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25, as widely anticipated. The slope of the hike path remains gradual.
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22 Mar 2017
Source: Statistics SA
SA inflation eases
CPI is 6.3 in January 2017.
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22 Mar 2017
Source: SA Reserve Bank
SA current account improves
SA’s current account deficit narrows to its lowest level in six years.
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23 Mar 2017
Source: Bloomberg News
ECB stops free loans
The European Central Bank (ECB) allots the final round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations - four-year loans at an interest rate that starts at zero and could go lower.
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29 Mar 2017
Source: AFP
Brexit launches
Prime Minister Theresa May launches the Brexit process with a six-page letter hand-delivered in Brussels by the UK ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow.
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30 Mar 2017
Source: Mail & Guardian
SA rates may come down
The SA Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged, but signals it’s likely reached the end of its interest rate hiking cycle.
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30 Mar 2017
Source: Eyewitness News
A Cabinet reshuffle
President Jacob Zuma orchestrates a Cabinet reshuffle, which leaves Pravin Gordhan without a portfolio and Malusi Gigaba in charge of the finance ministry.
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