Events that moved the market Q3 2016

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to above 2 143, ending a drought of 285 days without a fresh all-time high, the longest stretch outside a bear market since 1985.

The average profit margin for the SA formal business sector has declined, from 9c to every rand between June 2006 and September 2008 to 5c between December 2013 and March 2016.

Foreign direct investment into South Africa has dropped by 69% to $1.8bn, its lowest level in 10 years.

The BoE keeps rates on hold, indicating that it would likely provide stimulus three weeks later.

UK unemployment falls to 4.9%, the lowest since the third quarter of 2005.

UK retail sales drop by 0.9% in June. Is the Brexit outcome starting to bite?

The SA Reserve Bank revises its growth forecast for 2016 down to 0%.

Fitch downgrades SA’s local-currency debt rating to bring it in line with its foreign-currency rating – one notch above junk.

The renegade currency Bitcoin loses 20% against the dollar over three days as hackers steal $65m from the exchange.

The Bank of England cuts interest rates and restarts bond purchases to mitigate the impact of Brexit.

SA’s business confidence index rises to 96.0 points from 95.1 in June, lifted by a firmer rand and improvements in export volumes and retail sales.

 
The EU agrees to cancel budget fines for Spain and Portugal. The waivers follow a similar decision last year when France missed its deficit targets.

Two years after losing the lead to Nigeria, SA is once again the largest African economy in terms of dollar GDP - $301bn.

The pound touches 87.03 pence per euro, the weakest level in three years.

All three major US indices - the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq – reach a fresh high on the same day.

CPI decelerates from 6.3% y/y in June to 6.0% in July.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell sharply to 106.2 in August 2016 from 108.3 in the previous month, way below market expectations of 108.5.

At Jackson Hole Fed chair Yellen points out that she believes ‘the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.’

Nigeria's GDP shrinks by 2.06% in Q2, officially marking a recession. The non-oil sector fell due to a weaker currency while lower oil prices are dragging down the oil sector.

SA’s trade surplus declines to R5.22bn in July, down from June’s revised surplus of R12.47bn.

UK house prices rise 0.6% from July and are up 5.6% compared with a year earlier.

Futuregrowth suspends further loans to Eskom, Transnet, Sanral, Landbank, IDC and DBSA after concern over the new government structure to oversee all state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Jobless claims rise to 263 000, a much better level than the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey - 265 000. Dismissals are close to a four-decade low.

SA economy grows by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2016. The year-on-year growth stands at 0.6%.

US equities rally as analysts conclude the weak economic data recently released reduced the odds of a US interest rate hike in September.

UK manufacturing output for July falls 0.9% from June. But total industrial production rises 0.1%, thanks to oil and gas output.

China’s substantial foreign-exchange reserves fall to to $3.19 trillion in August, the lowest level since 2011 as the central bank continues to defend the yuan.

SA's Q2 current account deficit narrows significantly to 3.1% of GDP from a revised 5.3% in Q1.

S&P downgrades Nigeria’s rating to B, 5 levels below investment grade, due to poor growth amid lower oil prices, a restrictive foreign exchange policy and delayed fiscal stimulus.

CPI drops from 6.0% y/y in July to 5.9% in August, with transport one of the main contributors to the decrease.

BOJ keeps the benchmark rate at a negative 0.1%. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledges to expand the monetary base until inflation is stable above 2%.

According to the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index, US consumers have not been this confident since August 2007, the start of the financial crisis.